How does government-backed finance affect SMEs’ crisis predictors?
利用意大利中央担保基金的数据，研究发现政府担保能改善中小企业短期和中期盈利能力，但短期财务健康恶化，两年后债务负担减轻，对微型企业和服务业影响更大。
This paper estimates the impact of public guarantees on crisis predictive indicators among small and mid-size enterprises (SMEs). We use a confidential database provided by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development on the universe of guarantees granted by the Central Guarantee Fund. We apply difference-in-difference regressions and propensity-score matching estimators to a sample of approximately 40,000 SMEs over the 2010-2018 period. We find that obtaining a public guarantee improves profitability both in the short- and medium-term. On the other hand, SMEs' financial health worsens in the short run, but financial burdens are alleviated 2 years after the issuance of a guarantee. The economic and financial effects of government-backed loans are amplified for micro-sized firms, companies operating in the service sector and direct guarantees. Our results can thus support public authorities in designing credit guarantee schemes capable of preventing SMEs' zombification and protecting them from the risk of debt overhang.