Employee sentiment and stock returns
构建员工情绪指数,发现高员工情绪显著预测低月度市场收益,其经济机制是员工情绪高导致工资增长快,进而降低企业现金流和股票收益。
We propose an employee sentiment index, complementing investor sentiment and manager sentiment indices, and find that high employee sentiment predicts low monthly (weekly) market returns significantly both in- and out-of-sample. The predictability can also deliver sizable economic gains for mean-variance investors in asset allocation. The impact of employee sentiment is found stronger among employees who work in the headquarters state and are less experienced. The economic driving force of the predictability is unique: high employee sentiment leads to high contemporaneous wage growth due to immobility, which subsequently results in lower firm cash flow and lower stock returns .