Demographic change and the rate of return in pay-as-you-go pension systems
研究了发达国家人口变化中长寿效应和队列效应对现收现付养老金制度回报率的影响，发现长寿效应提高回报率，队列效应导致代际差异，并以德国为例量化了代际回报率差异达1.3个百分点。
Abstract The ongoing demographic change in most developed countries consists of two coinciding independent developments that differ in structure and persistence: A slow, monotonic and (presumably) permanent longevity effect caused by an increasing life expectancy; and a more rapidly changing, non-monotonic and less permanent cohort effect caused by fluctuations in the size of cohorts. This paper shows the longevity effect has a positive impact on the rates of return households generate within a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. The cohort effect, by contrast, results in winners and losers in PAYG systems. The paper additionally shows that the type of PAYG pension system alters the results significantly. Taking the remarkable demographic change in Germany as an example, a large-scale overlapping generation model quantifies rates of return within the PAYG pension system for every cohort. The results show that the two effects combined cause return differentials of almost 1.3 percentage points between generations.