Faecal shedding models for SARS-CoV-2 RNA among hospitalised patients and implications for wastewater-based epidemiology
通过建立分层模型分析住院患者粪便中SARS-CoV-2 RNA的脱落浓度和半衰期，发现废水监测可早于临床病例出现，但住院患者脱落量不足以解释废水中的高浓度RNA。
Abstract The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in faeces is not well characterised, posing challenges for quantitative wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE). We developed hierarchical models for faecal RNA shedding and fitted them to data from six studies. A mean concentration of 1.9 × 106 mL-1 (2.3 × 105–2.0 × 108 95% credible interval) was found among unvaccinated inpatients, not considering differences in shedding between viral variants. Limits of quantification could account for negative samples based on Bayesian model comparison. Inpatients represented the tail of the shedding profile with a half-life of 34 hours (28–43 95% credible interval), suggesting that WBE can be a leading indicator for clinical presentation. Shedding among inpatients could not explain the high RNA concentrations found in wastewater, consistent with more abundant shedding during the early infection course.