Right and yet wrong: a politico-economic perspective on Germany’s early COVID-19 policy
运用时空流行病预测模型，以德国早期防疫政策为例，说明从决策者实时视角看合理的政策，事后评估可能被认为不必要或无效，且一刀切政策可能并非最优。
Applying a spatio-temporal endemic–epidemic forecasting model, we evaluate different perspectives on the adequacy of COVID-19 containment policies. Using Germany’s early containment policy as an example, we show that containment policies judged as rational based on the real-time perspective of policymakers may be deemed unnecessary or ineffective in ex-post evaluations. We also demonstrate that one-size-fits-all policies implemented in Germany early in the pandemic are likely suboptimal.