Unexpected longevity, intergenerational policies, and fertility
研究发现，意外长寿使年轻人需要更多储蓄和缴税，从而降低生育率；跨国数据证实，65岁预期寿命意外增长会降低总和生育率增长和政府家庭支出增长，但提高养老支出增长。
longevity gains. Old agents become poorer from unexpected longevity gains than from expected gains, as they cannot prepare (save) for the former in advance. In an overlapping-generations model with means-tested pay-as-you-go social security, we show that young agents reduce their fertility when longevity increases because they need to save more for their old age ("life-cycle effect"), and in the unexpected case, they also need to pay taxes to support the impoverished elderly ("policy effect"). Using cross-country panel data on mortality rates and social expenditure, we find that an unexpected increase in life expectancy at age 65 lowers total fertility rate growth and government family-related spending growth while raising government old-age spending growth. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3.