Determinants of dairy‐product trade: Do subsidies matter?
使用2000-2016年49个出口国和235个进口国的面板数据，通过引力模型分析发现国内补贴对乳制品贸易有微小但显著的正向影响，而关税影响不显著。
Abstract Given the recent changes in the supply and demand of dairy products, many opportunities arise for exporting and importing countries. This paper examines determinants of dairy‐product trade by applying the Poisson Pseudo‐Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method to the gravity model using panel data on 49 exporting and 235 importing countries for the 17 years from 2000 to 2016. The gravity model is estimated using both interval data and dynamic analyses. The results show that domestic subsidies have a modest, but significant, impact on dairy‐product trade across the models. For example, a 1% increase in subsidies leads to a roughly 0.02% increase in trade for an average country. Memberships in trade agreements, market size factors, and government institutions also positively affect dairy‐product trade. However, tariffs are insignificant in the main model specification. Results from the lag‐policy analysis show that the impact of subsidies disappears after the second year of distribution; whereas for the lead‐policy analysis, results suggest at least 3 years of anticipatory effects on domestic subsidies.