Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP
通过两轮随机对照在线实验，研究英国公众是否理解GDP数据的不确定性，以及不同传达方式（定性或定量）如何影响公众的主观概率预期和对统计机构的信任。
Abstract Economic statistics are commonly published without estimates of their uncertainty. We conduct two waves of a randomized controlled online experiment to assess if and how the UK public understands data uncertainty. A control group observes only the point estimate of GDP. Treatment groups are presented with alternative qualitative and quantitative communications of GDP data uncertainty. We find that most of the public understands that GDP numbers are uncertain. Quantitative communications of data uncertainty help align the public's subjective probabilistic expectations of data uncertainty with objective estimates, but do not decrease trust in the statistical office.