Wildfire risk, salience, and housing development in the wildland–urban interface
研究了野火风险显著性如何影响美国科罗拉多州荒野-城市交界区的住宅开发速率，发现野火事件后高风险区的新开发显著减少，效果持续5年以上。
Abstract As wildfires increase in both severity and frequency, understanding the role of risk saliency on human behaviors in the face of fire risks becomes paramount. While research has shown that homebuyers capitalize wildfire risk following a fire, studies of the role that risk saliency plays on residential development is limited. This paper aims to fill this gap by studying the link between wildfire risk saliency and the rate of residential development in wildfire‐prone areas, by treating recent wildfires as conditionally exogenous shocks to saliency. Using geospatial data on residential development in Colorado, we show that saliency shocks due to wildfire lead to statistically significant reductions in the rate of new development in wildfire risk zones that last upwards of 5 years, a result that is robust to a number of alternative explanations. We explore the policy implications of these findings, noting that education on fire risks may curtail some but not all of the development in these high wildfire‐risk areas due to the rapid growth of development in these regions.