Local information and firm expectations about aggregates
利用德国企业定量增长预期的新调查数据，发现企业在形成总量增长预期时会依赖本地信息，如所在县的经济状况、行业增长和自身经营情况，这些本地信号解释了企业预期差异的很大一部分，尤其对小企业影响更强。
Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation. Variables (fixed effects) measuring local signals account for up to 26 % (47 %) of the expectation dispersion across firms. The effect is particularly strong for small firms. Our results confirm predictions of theoretical models with rational inattention.