Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks
利用临时贸易壁垒的月度数据，研究发现保护主义对受保护行业的就业影响微小且不显著，但对下游行业的就业有显著负面影响，通过中间品和最终品价格上涨及股市回报下降传导。
Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate input and final goods prices and a decline in stock market returns.