Panic and propagation in 1873: A network analytic approach
结合线性规划和计算优化估计1873年恐慌前后的美国银行间网络，发现网络能预测恐慌银行及其资产负债表恶化，揭示19世纪美国金融危机的区域提款模式。
We assess systemic risk in the U.S. banking system before and after the Panic of 1873, using a combination of linear programming and computational optimization to estimate the interbank network. We impose liquidity shocks resembling those of 1873, and find the network captures the distribution of interbank deposits a year later. The network predicts banks likely to panic in the crisis, and those banks see their balance sheets weaken in the year after the crisis more than others. The results shed light on the nature and regional pattern of withdrawals in a classic 19th-century U.S. financial crisis.