Managerial Beliefs and Banking Behavior
利用美国银行数据构建基于拨备的管理者信念指标，发现乐观导致贷款扩张和风险增加，悲观则相反，且信念变化在2007-2008年金融危机前后起重要作用。
Abstract We use a large sample of US banks to construct a new indicator of managerial beliefs based on bank provisioning. This indicator does not only anticipate a future charge-off but also explains future loan growth and other variables. In particular, the indicator shows that an increase in managerial optimism (pessimism) leads to expanded (tight) lending, leverage, and a riskier (less risky) portfolio. Our findings confirm that widespread managerial optimism (pessimism) prevailed before (during) the 2007-2008 financial crisis and that changes in managerial beliefs played an important role in the lending and leverage cycles.