Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model
提出一个利用球员能力评分预测足球比赛结果的模型，直接反映球队实力的动态变化，在博彩市场中测试获得显著正回报。
The paper presents a model for forecasting the results of football matches, which takes into account the abilities of the players on each team. The advantage of this approach is that the dynamic nature of team strengths is incorporated into the model directly. We test our model against the bookmaker’s predictions and in a Kelly-type betting strategy applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market. The new model results in significant positive returns to betting.