Wolves' contribution to structural change in grazing systems among swiss alpine summer farms: The evidence from causal random forest
利用2004-2021年瑞士高山夏季牧场的狼攻击数据和农场结构数据，通过因果随机森林方法分析发现，频繁的狼攻击会加速羊群易受攻击的放牧系统减少，而保护措施较好的系统则有所增加。
Abstract The return of wolves to Swiss mountains and the damage they cause to sheep and goat herds in the region have raised concerns about a consequent wave of farm closures. In this paper, we examine the relationship between wolf attacks and the decline of Alpine summer farms, a specific high‐altitude farm type. We collected farm structure data and monitoring data on wolf attacks between 2004 and 2021 and analysed them using a causal random forest method, enabling a detailed analysis of the relation between wolf attacks and the number of different types of Alpine summer farms at a regional level. The results show that the farming systems are unaffected by incidental and infrequent wolf attacks, but that a high number of wolf attacks in a region is related to faster decrease in number of grazing systems where sheep are most vulnerable to such attacks. In contrast, systems that allow for better herd protection tend to show an increase in areas with frequent wolf attacks.