Longer-term structural transitions and short-term macroeconomic adjustment: quantitative implications for the global financial system
量化分析了人口增长放缓、生产率增速长期下降以及气候冲击与政策三大全球转型对投资需求、贸易和资本流动的影响，揭示其对全球金融体系的冲击。
Abstract This paper provides quantitative modelling of the effect of three longer-term global transitions: the global demographic transition involving a marked reduction in population growth; a long-term slowdown in productivity growth which may continue, or may conceivably be reversed; and the disruption in the global economy due to increasing climate shocks and the implementation of climate policies that will be needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. We study the global investment needs to which these transitions will lead. We demonstrate that these investment needs will be both asymmetric across countries and over time. This asymmetry will lead to potentially large changes in trade flows and significant financial capital flows across national borders, and also to substantial real exchange changes and interest rate movements. The resulting large movements in international capital flows will have significant implications for the global financial system, which we demonstrate at the country and regional level.