What reviews foretell about opening weekend box office revenue: the harbinger of failure effect in the movie industry
研究发现，影评人的正面预映评论反而预示电影会失败，负面评论则预示成功，这一效应在专业影评人中同样存在，挑战了正面评论提升票房的传统观点。
Abstract We empirically investigate the harbinger of failure phenomenon in the motion picture industry by analyzing the pre-release reviews written on movies by film critics. We find that harbingers of failure do exist. Their positive (negative) pre-release movie reviews provide a strong predictive signal that the movie will turn out to be a flop (success). This signal persists even for the top critic category, which usually consists of professional critics, indicating that having expertise in a professional domain does not necessarily lead to correct predictions. Our findings challenge the current belief that positive reviews always help enhance box office revenue and shed new light on the influencer-predictor hypothesis. We further analyze the writing style of harbingers and provide new insights into their personality traits and cognitive biases.