Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies
研究了通胀目标制新兴经济体如何传导大宗商品价格冲击,发现冲击导致实际汇率升值、产出和通胀上升、失业率下降,并强调劳动力市场摩擦和货币政策是关键机制。
We analyse the transmission mechanism of commodity price shocks in inflation targeting emerging economies. Using a panel vector autoregression, we find that for a commodity exporter, the shock causes a real exchange rate appreciation, increases in output, inflation, the nominal interest rate and the trade balance, and a fall in the unemployment rate. The mechanism underlying the dynamics driving the VAR can be understood using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Search and matching frictions in the labour market and the conduct of monetary policy are key for the model to match the data.