全球大流行的宏观经济学:生命与生计再审视

The macroeconomics of pandemics around the world: Lives versus livelihoods revisited

Journal of Development Economics · 2023
被引 5
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

研究COVID-19疫情期间,不同收入国家在生命与生计之间的政策权衡,发现贫困国家因生存约束和人口特征,最优封锁政策可能同样严格甚至更严。

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic led governments around the world to impose unprecedented restrictions on economic activity. Were these restrictions equally justified in poorer countries with fewer demographic risk factors and less ability to weather economic shocks? We develop and estimate a fully specified model of the macroeconomy with epidemiological dynamics, incorporating subsistence constraints in consumption and allowing preferences over "lives versus livelihoods" to vary with income. Poorer countries' demography pushes them unambiguously toward laxer policies. But because both infected and susceptible agents near the subsistence constraint will remain economically active in the face of infection risk and even to some extent under government containment policies, optimal policy in poorer countries pushes in the opposite direction. Moreover, for reasonable income-elasticities of the value of a statistical life, the model can fully rationalize equally strict or stricter policies in poorer countries.

COVID-19大流行宏观经济流行病学模型生存约束