现代货币理论作为发展政策指南的弱点

Weaknesses of MMT as a guide to development policy

Cambridge Journal of Economics · 2023
被引 12
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

批评现代货币理论(MMT)对中低收入国家发展政策的指导作用,认为其误判发展挑战的本质是结构转型而非需求不足,且其政策建议在发展中国家可能适得其反。

Abstract

Abstract This paper addresses the limitations of Modern Money Theory (MMT) as a guide to development policy. We explore two main questions on this topic: whether policies championed by MMT advocates (i) ought to be implemented in low- and middle-income economies and (ii) can be implemented. In relation to the first question, we argue that the MMT literature mischaracterises the essence of the development challenge for low- and middle-income economies. Our argument is that the chief long-run growth challenge faced by developing countries concerns structural transformation rather than general aggregate demand insufficiency. We use several formal representations of the consumption–investment trade-off in growth theory, found in the Harrod–Domar growth model, the Feldman–Mahalanobis model and Kalecki’s 1963 growth model to illustrate this point. Concerning the second question, we argue that even if MMT had the correct diagnosis of the principal growth challenge faced by developing countries, its chief policy recommendations would likely be counter-productive if implemented outside of select advanced economies. We draw from the international economics literature on currency hierarchy and exchange rate volatility to illustrate this point.

现代货币理论发展政策结构转型货币等级