多剂量疫苗在优先年龄组和动态需求下的公平分配:以COVID-19为例

Fair-split distribution of multi-dose vaccines with prioritized age groups and dynamic demand: The case study of COVID-19

European Journal of Operational Research · 2023
被引 33
ABS 4

中文导读

研究了一个多疫苗、多仓库的选址-库存-路径问题,通过Benders分解算法和SIR流行病模型,在法国真实数据上实现了疫苗公平分配,发现延迟接种间隔可减少50%未满足需求。

Abstract

The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and new viral variations with higher transmission and mortality rates have highlighted the urgency to accelerate vaccination to mitigate the morbidity and mortality of the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, this paper formulates a new multi-vaccine, multi-depot location-inventory-routing problem for vaccine distribution. The proposed model addresses a wide variety of vaccination concerns: prioritizing age groups, fair distribution, multi-dose injection, dynamic demand, etc. To solve large-size instances of the model, we employ a Benders decomposition algorithm with a number of acceleration techniques. To monitor the dynamic demand of vaccines, we propose a new adjusted susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model, where infected individuals are tested and quarantined. The solution to the optimal control problem dynamically allocates the vaccine demand to reach the endemic equilibrium point. Finally, to illustrate the applicability and performance of the proposed model and solution approach, the paper reports extensive numerical experiments on a real case study of the vaccination campaign in France. The computational results show that the proposed Benders decomposition algorithm is 12 times faster, and its solutions are, on average, 16% better in terms of quality than the Gurobi solver under a limited CPU time. In terms of vaccination strategies, our results suggest that delaying the recommended time interval between doses of injection by a factor of 1.5 reduces the unmet demand up to 50%. Furthermore, we observed that the mortality is a convex function of fairness and an appropriate level of fairness should be adapted through the vaccination.

疫苗分配运筹优化流行病模型公共卫生