Heuristics in Self-Evaluation: Evidence from the Centralized College Admission System in China
利用高考数据发现，考生分数在10的倍数附近存在明显跳跃，低于该阈值的学生填报志愿更保守，进入较差学校和专业；高于阈值的学生则更冒险，但更容易落空。这揭示了考生在自我评价中受左位数字启发式的影响。
Abstract Using administrative data on the Chinese National College Entrance Examination, we study how left-digit bias affects college applications. We find strong discontinuities in students’ admission outcomes at ten-point thresholds. Students with scores just below multiples of 10 make more conservative college application choices that place them into less selective colleges and majors. In contrast, students who score at or just above multiples of 10 aim at and achieve higher but are at greater risk of overshooting. The discontinuity reveals that despite the educational and labor market consequences, students’ self-evaluation based on exam scores is subject to information-processing heuristics.