Duration structure of unemployment hazards and the trend unemployment rate
本文提出一种新方法估计趋势失业率，该方法考虑了失业风险的持续时间特征，发现1980至2019年间趋势失业率下降约3个百分点，短期失业成分减少而长期成分增加，表明摩擦性失业下降但结构性失业上升。
This paper develops a new method to estimate the trend unemployment rate in which the duration profile of unemployment hazards is taken into account. The duration profile is characterized by three time-varying elements— level, slope , and curvature . The model also recovers the duration component of trend unemployment rate and the trend mean duration of unemployment. The estimated trend unemployment rate declines by about 3 percentage points between 1980 and 2019. Its short-term duration component decreases, whereas the long-term component increases, resulting in a rise in the trend mean duration of unemployment. The opposite trends in duration components suggest falling frictional unemployment but rising structural unemployment.