Containment Measures and Business Confidence in COVID Times: A Global Study
研究了2018年1月至2020年12月期间31个发达和12个新兴经济体的数据，发现新冠疫情防控措施对商业信心有负面影响，且强制性措施影响更大，但邻国防控措施有正向溢出效应。
ABSTRACT In this article, we take a global perspective to assess the impact of the exogenous COVID pandemic shock on business confidence. Through a quantitative analysis of 31 advanced and 12 emerging economies over the period from January 2018 to December 2020, we provide a novel investigation of a unique worldwide event, in contrast to the most frequent exogenous shocks, which typically have a more limited local or regional scope. We proxy business expectations with the business confidence indicator or BCI. First, we find that the containment measures for the COVID pandemic have negatively affected business confidence, with the compulsory policies having a greater negative effect on BCI than the voluntary ones. Second, we find positive spillover effects on the local BCIs from the containment measures implemented in neighboring countries. This suggests that business people are not against compulsory measures per se , but rather that they are less inclined to assume the costs of these. Third, we find that while the severity of containment measures has been greater in emerging countries, the negative impact on BCI of these containment measures has been larger in advanced economies.