The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany
利用德国行政数据，研究发现失业后年度收入损失大、持久且高度周期性，衰退期损失几乎翻倍，长期损失主要由工资下降驱动，而工资下降源于工人转向低薪企业。
We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses and their cyclicality is driven by declines in wages. Key to these long-lasting wage declines and their cyclicality are changes in employer characteristics, as displaced workers switch to lower-paying firms. These losses increase with duration of nonemployment. Changes in characteristics of displaced workers or displacing firms, and other post-job loss career outcomes explain little of the cyclicality.