Climate Change and Labor Reallocation: Evidence from Six Decades of the Indian Census
研究了1951至2011年间印度地区气温上升如何影响劳动力从农业向非农业部门的转移和城市化，发现高温降低了非农业就业份额，且长期效应更强，原因在于农业减产抑制了本地对非农商品和服务的需求。
How do rising temperatures affect long-term labor reallocation in developing economies? In this paper we examine how increases in temperature impact structural transformation and urbanization within Indian districts between 1951 and 2011. We find that rising temperatures are associated with lower shares of workers in nonagricultural sectors, with effects intensifying over a longer time frame. Supporting evidence suggests that local demand effects play an important role: declining agricultural productivity under higher temperatures reduces the demand for nonagricultural goods and services, which subsequently lowers nonagricultural labor demand. Our results illustrate that rising temperatures limit sectoral and rural-urban mobility for isolated households.