COVID-19: Epidemiological Models
本文综述了预测新疫情轨迹的流行病学模型要素，并指出经济学家在评估公共卫生政策成本收益及改进人类行为建模方面可发挥重要作用，适合对相关研究感兴趣的经济学者。
The world has been confronted in recent decades with several infectious disease outbreaks caused by novel pathogens, with the COVID-19 pandemic being the most severe of these. In this article, I review some of the main elements of epidemiological models used to forecast the trajectory of a new epidemic and to guide public health policy responses to a new infectious disease. I argue that economists have a lot to contribute to the discussion of public health policies, particularly in regard to assessing the costs and benefits of alternative policies and in improving the modeling of changes in human behavior in response to new infectious diseases. This survey is intended to serve economists interested in starting research in these areas.