Bayes Rule and the Selection of Investment Managers
指出资产所有者用贝叶斯法则更新投资经理预期业绩的简单方法，与金融理论不一致，并阐明了这一区别。
One simple way for an asset owner to update an estimate of the expected performance of an investment manager is to apply the Bayes rule. In its simplest form, this involves no information other than an estimate of the prior distribution and historical data on manager performance. However, this direct method of updating expectations is inconsistent with finance theory. This short note draws out the distinction.