Public debt and r-g risks in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone
研究22个OECD国家1970-2018年数据发现，高公共债务水平并不预示更不利的r-g（利率减增长率），但欧元危机期间欧元区外围国家面临更大风险，表明欧元区制度架构影响债务动态。
Differentials between interest rates on government bonds (r) and economic growth rates (g) are a key determinant of public debt dynamics. What are the predictors of r-g, and what risks do policy-makers face? Applying regression methods to data on 22 OECD countries over 1970–2018 shows that higher public debt levels are not predictive of more unfavourable r-g in both Eurozone and stand-alone countries, where the latter issue debt in their own currency. The Euro Crisis – a period characterised by doubts over whether the ECB would backstop government bond markets – is linked with more unfavourable r-g, but only in Euro periphery countries. Our results suggest that the Eurozone’s institutional architecture affects r-g risks. While we find that predicted probabilities of future r – g < 0 are typically significantly higher than 50 % across OECD economies under conditions similar to the pre-Covid-19 years, r-g risks are most significant in the Euro periphery.