30 years of exchange rate analysis and forecasting: A bibliometric review
用文献计量方法分析了1992-2021年Web of Science上4999篇汇率研究论文，识别了有影响力的作者、机构、热点和未来趋势，为汇率研究者提供参考。
Abstract Due to the strong nonlinearity and high complexity of foreign exchange rate data, how best to accurately analyze their trends and forecast them is regarded as a challenging research topic. While such research has developed rapidly and a large number of publications have appeared, few programmatic quantitative and qualitative overviews have been compiled in the field of exchange rate. By integrating bibliometric methods with network visualization based on CiteSpace software, this study analyzed 4999 publications of exchange rate research from the Web of Science (WoS) Core Collection database during 1992 to 2021. The study summarizes the major development in exchange rate determination since Meese‐Rogoff puzzle, from New Open‐Economy Macroeconomics (NOEM) and the Foreign Exchange Market Micro‐Structure Hypotheses, to determination model based on relationship between exchange rate and commodity price. Through the study's statistical analysis, co‐occurrence, co‐citation, and co‐keywords analysis, the influential authors, research institutions, countries and regions, journals, research hotspots, and future trends in the field of exchange rate are intellectually identified over the past 30 years. As a complement to existing literature, this paper provides theoretical and practical reference for researchers and practitioners in the field of exchange rate.