管理决策疲劳:来自分析师盈利预测的证据

Managing decision fatigue: Evidence from analysts’ earnings forecasts

Journal of Accounting & Economics · 2023
被引 15
人大 AFT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

研究发现分析师会策略性地管理决策疲劳,在疲劳程度较低时优先发布对重要公司(如大市值、高交易量、机构持股多的公司)的预测,年轻分析师、低地位券商分析师更易如此,且策略管理后职业前景更好。

Abstract

Prior literature shows decision fatigue reduces analysts' forecast accuracy. We study whether analysts strategically manage their decision fatigue. Firms within an analyst's research portfolio can differentially affect the analyst's reputation and career, with larger firms with greater trading volumes and institutional ownership being more important. We find that analysts choose to issue forecasts for more important firms when they are less decision fatigued, i.e., when the number of prior forecasts the analyst has issued in the day is lower. Young analysts, analysts in low-status brokerage houses, and analysts who become decision fatigued more easily manage fatigue more, and analysts experience more favorable career outcomes after strategically managing fatigue. Finally, fatigued analysts differentiate between more important and other firms in herding and self-herding.

分析师决策疲劳预测顺序策略分析师职业后果分析师声誉