Seeking shelter in times of crisis? unemployment, perceived job insecurity and trade union membership
基于德国面板数据，研究了劳动力市场危机引发的感知工作不安全感如何促使工人加入工会，发现危机确实增加了工会会员身份的可能性。
Abstract Do trade unions benefit from economic crises by attracting new members among workers concerned about job security? To address this question, we provide a comprehensive empirical investigation based on panel data from Germany, where workers decide individually on their membership. We analyse whether exogenously manipulated perceptions of job insecurity encourage individuals to join a trade union. Firm‐level workforce reductions serve as the first trigger of perceived job insecurity. Regional unemployment rates represent a second source of exogenous variation. Third, we propose a novel identification approach based on plant‐closure‐induced job losses of other workers in the same region. In each case, we exploit the longitudinal nature of the data to analyse the implications of changes in labour market conditions for changes in union membership using an instrumental variable approach. We find consistently that perceived job insecurity, as triggered by labour market turmoil, increases the likelihood of individual union membership. Analysing data on media coverage about downsizing in a complementary investigation, we add further evidence to the notion of trade unions as beneficiaries of labour market crises. Finally, we consider workers who lose their jobs and find no evidence of adverse effects on union membership among those affected directly by unemployment.