What is Certain about Uncertainty?
综述了新闻、调查、计量和市场四类不确定性、风险和波动性度量方法，比较其构建、优缺点及对金融市场和经济的影响，并强调识别问题对效应大小和传导渠道解释的关键作用。
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of existing measures of uncertainty, risk, and volatility, noting their conceptual distinctions. It summarizes how they are constructed, their relative advantages in usage, and their effects on financial market and economic outcomes. The measures are divided into four categories based on the construction methodology: news-based, survey-based, econometric-based, and market-based measures. While heightened uncertainty is typically associated with negative real and financial outcomes, the magnitude of these effects and the interpretation of transmission channels crucially depend on identification considerations.