Pension Systems (Un)Sustainability and Fiscal Constraints: A Comparative Analysis
使用代际交叠模型提出两个新指标（养老金空间及其耗尽概率），衡量各国养老金系统可持续性，发现发达国家差异显著，多数国家未来30年难以靠劳动税收支撑养老金，风险等效改革长期有益但短期成本高。
ABSTRACT Using an overlapping generations model, two new indicators of public pension system sustainability are proposed: the pension space, which measures the capacity to pay for pension expenditures out of labour taxation, and the pension space exhaustion probability reflecting demographic uncertainties. These measures reveal that the pension spaces of advanced economies are strikingly different. Most nations have little scope to further finance pensions out of labour income taxation over the next 30 years. There is no one‐size‐fits‐all solution. Risk‐equivalent pension reforms enhance welfare in the long run, particularly for rapidly ageing nations, but also entail non‐negligible transitional costs.