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模糊厌恶与模糊程度

Ambiguity aversion and the degree of ambiguity

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · 2023
被引 14
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

实证表明样本信息不仅影响前景的结果模糊性,也影响决策者表现出的模糊厌恶;考虑模糊程度可改善对厌恶行为的预测,且许多决策者喜欢低模糊度而厌恶高模糊度。

Abstract

Abstract We empirically show that sample information not only moderates prospects’ outcome ambiguity but also decision makers’ revealed aversion of them. Since most natural prospects permit at least some sample inference, accounting for their degree of ambiguity improves prediction of aversion. The special case of full ambiguity, as in Ellsberg-type designs, is typically averted—yet many decision makers systematically like low degrees of ambiguity while disliking higher degrees. Ambiguity attitudes might thus usefully be characterized by not only their sensitivity to degrees of ambiguity but also such ambiguity thresholds. Just as people like some risks but not others, they have ambiguity attitudes that depend on how much ambiguity there is. We thus show how attitudes towards a degree of ambiguity are systematic, enabling prediction across sources of ambiguity.

行为经济学决策理论实验经济学心理学