Saralees Nadarajah’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘The First Discussion Meeting on Statistical aspects of climate change’
该文建立了挪威全国建筑水灾风险评分模型，结合气候预测评估21世纪中期和末期的洪水风险变化，对保险和城市规划有参考价值。
Weather-related risk makes the insurance industry inevitably concerned with climate and climate change.Buildings hit by pluvial flooding is a key manifestation of this risk, giving rise to compensations for the induced physical damages and business interruptions.In this work, we establish a nationwide, buildingspecific risk score for water damage associated with pluvial flooding in Norway.We fit a generalised additive model that relates the number of water damages to a wide range of explanatory variables that can be categorised into building attributes, climatological variables, and topographical characteristics.The model assigns a risk score to every location in Norway, based on local topography and climate, which is not only useful for insurance companies but also for city planning.Combining our model with an ensemble of climate projections allows us to project the (spatially varying) impacts of climate change on the risk of pluvial flooding towards the middle and end of the 21st century.