Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?
研究了铜、镍、钴和锂四种金属在净零排放情景下的需求冲击和供给弹性，发现其价格将长期处于历史高位，可能阻碍能源转型，且生产价值将接近石油市场。
Abstract The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021–2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.