非等间距时间序列的估计

Estimation on unevenly spaced time series

Journal of Time Series Analysis · 2023
被引 2
ABS 3

中文导读

研究了在观测时间点不规则的情况下,如何估计平稳时间序列的均值,给出了样本均值估计量的表达式及其渐近性质,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟验证了方法的有效性。

Abstract

In many different fields realizations of stationary time series might be recorded at irregular points in time, resulting in observed unevenly spaced samples. These missing observations can happen for several reasons, depending on the mechanisms that record the data or external conditions that force the missing observations. In this article, we first focus on the question if we can estimate the mean of a stationary time series when data are not equally spaced. We show that any unevenly spaced sample can be used to estimate the mean of an underlying stationary linear time series. Specifically, we do not impose any restrictions on sampling structure and times, as long as they are independent of the underlying time series. We provide an expression for the sample mean estimator and we establish its asymptotic properties and the central limit theorem. Subsequently we studentize estimation which allows to build confidence intervals for the mean. Finite sample properties of the estimator for the mean are investigated in a Monte Carlo study which confirms good performance of such estimation procedure.

时间序列分析统计估计缺失数据蒙特卡洛方法