Rogue traders
研究交易员如何通过欺诈伪装个人能力,以及资本分配、风险偏好和技能如何影响诚实行为,为金融机构防范交易员道德风险提供参考。
Abstract Investing on behalf of a firm, a trader can feign personal skill by committing fraud that with high probability remains undetected and generates small gains, but with low probability bankrupts the firm, offsetting ostensible gains. Honesty requires enough skin in the game : if two traders with isoelastic preferences operate in continuous time and one of them is honest, the other is honest as long as the respective fraction of capital is above an endogenous fraud threshold that depends on the trader’s preferences and skill. If both traders can cheat, they reach a Nash equilibrium in which the fraud threshold of each of them is lower than if the other one were honest. More skill, higher risk aversion, longer horizons and higher volatility all lead to honesty on a wider range of capital allocations between the traders.