The future of economic statistics
回顾英国经济统计从二战后到疫情后的演变,指出数据科学和行政大数据正推动统计创新,帮助更全面衡量经济、环境与社会福祉。
The future of economic statisticsWe now stand at the cusp of an exciting era in the development of economic statistics.Our methods are becoming increasingly sophisticated and granular, better reflecting the changing nature of our society and economy.As we continue to push the boundaries of statistical analysis, we inch closer to meeting Robert Kennedy's challenge of 18 March 1968-to measure not only the output of our economy but also the well-being of our citizens and the quality of our environment.From the 1950s to the 1990s, economic statistics underwent significant transformation.The expansion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measurements, statistics of the construction industry, balance of payments, and public sector expenditure metrics mirrored the rapid progress of postwar Britain.Advances in computer technology during the 1980s facilitated more efficient data processing, while the 1990s witnessed the creation of the first environmental accounts and the introduction of the Consumer Prices Index (CPI).However, the turn of the millennium saw a deceleration in the evolution of economic statistics.The Bean Review in 2016 exposed the widening gap between the opportunities for economic statistics and the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) capacity to seize them.This underscored the need to rekindle the pioneering spirit of earlier decades and establish a new era for economic statistics in the UK.A dynamic economy requires a dynamic statistical office.The Bean Review set the stage for modernisation, fostering administrative and commercial big data, data science, and collaboration with academia.As the pandemic unfolded, it served as a catalyst for innovation, similar to how wartime needs had driven the development of economic statistics in the past.During the pandemic, the ONS played a critical role in providing timely data to support informed decision-making.New data sources and online business and household surveys were rapidly implemented, allowing for real-time tracking of the pandemic's impact.The ONS also expanded its scope, releasing the widely acclaimed Covid Infection Survey.As the pandemic subsides, there is a clear demand for retaining these newly developed methods and data sources due to their ongoing value.The lessons learned from the pandemic have set the stage for a new era of economic statistics, marked by innovation, adaptability, and resilience.It allows us to try and broaden out our understanding of our economy and society.Developments in data science provide us with the tools to make the most of this new era.We were able to harness real-time card transactions data during the pandemic to observe the effect of lockdowns.Now we can use the same tools to see how unexpected events such as additional Bank Holidays can affect GDP.We are investing heavily in scanner data to give us much more granular information on the prices actually paid at the shops, and have just introduced real-time rail fares transaction data into the CPI.Later in 2023, we will also be consulting on the transformation of our population statistics, where new data science techniques can allow us drive new value out of administrative data.We are also looking Beyond GDP.We want to be able to capture better environmental and social progress, in addition to our strengths in economic data.The ONS has an exciting programme of work looking at 'the missing capitals'-intangible capital (brands, intellectual property,