Lessons from US–China Trade Relations
综述了过去20年中美贸易关系的经济影响，包括中国冲击的起源与测量、贸易战的效果，发现贸易创造了赢家和输家，但中国扩张并非美国制造业就业下降主因，贸易战造成福利损失且未能逆转分配效应。
We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the past 20 years. We first discuss the origins of the China shock and its measurement and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus on the recent US–China trade war. We review methods used to evaluate its effects, describe its economic effects, and analyze whether this increase in trade protectionism reverted the effects of the China shock. The main lessons learned in this review are that (a) the aggregate gains from US–China trade created winners and losers; (b) China's trade expansion seems not to be the main cause of the decline in US manufacturing employment during the same period; and (c) the recent trade war generated welfare losses, had small employment effects, and was ineffective in reversing the distributional effects due to the China shock.