On potential information asymmetries in long-term care insurance: A simulation study using data from Switzerland
利用瑞士人口代表性样本模拟长期护理保险市场的信息不对称效应，发现多数人并不了解自身失能风险，因此逆向选择难以发生。
The long-term care insurance (LTCI) market in Switzerland is still in a very early development stage. In this work, we make use of a representative sample of the Swiss population to simulate the likely effects of previously discovered information asymmetries in the LTCI market. By resorting to LTCI preferences of potential customers, and using Monte Carlo simulations, we provide estimations of the expected probability and duration of dependence indicators. Thereby, we compare the frequency and severity of the sub-population that has shown interest in LTCI with the rest in different mortality scenarios. While in the Swiss demographic context, individuals have a high probability to experience loss of autonomy in their lifetime, we do not find evidence to believe that those interested in LTCI coverage are so based on privileged information about them being at greater risk. In fact, we discover that most people are not aware of their own risk to lose autonomy, which makes potential adverse selection in the LTCI market rather difficult.