全球碳转型驱动的共同波动冲击

Common volatility shocks driven by the global carbon transition

Journal of Econometrics · 2023
被引 28 · 同刊同年前 7%
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

提出新方法衡量气候变化新闻对金融市场的全球影响,发现能源转型担忧使油气股价全球联动,且负面气候新闻的冲击被油价放大、被股市削弱。

Abstract

We propose a novel approach to measure the global effects of climate change news on financial markets. For that purpose, we first calculate the global common volatility of the oil and gas industry. Then we project it on climate-related shocks constructed using text-based proxies of climate change news. We show that rising concerns about the energy transition make oil and gas share prices move at the global scale, controlling for shocks to the oil price, US and world stock markets. Despite the clear exposure of oil and gas companies to carbon transition risk, not all geoclimatic shocks are alike. The signs and magnitudes of the impacts differ across climate risk drivers. Regarding sentiment, climate change news tends to create turmoil only when the news is negative. Moreover, the adverse effect is amplified by oil price movements but weakened by stock market shocks. Finally, our findings point out climate news materialises when it reaches the global scale, supporting the relevance of modelling geoclimatic volatility.

全球碳转型气候新闻油气行业波动共同波动冲击