On optimal lockdown policies while facing socioeconomic costs
本文利用SQAIRD模型分析针对青年、成年和老年三组人群的最优封锁政策，发现不同社会经济结构下封锁政策优于放任政策，且针对不同群体的差异化政策比统一政策更有效，其中青年和老年人的最优封锁率应高于成年人。
Abstract The paper analyzes the optimal lockdown policy using the SQAIRD model over a network with three population groups (young, adult, and old). We show that different lockdown policies may be justified by different socioeconomic structures (objective cost functions that are either convex or concave). We also show that a lockdown policy is always better than a laissez-faire policy, and a targeted policy specific to each group outperforms a uniform policy. In our benchmark example, we consider the case of Italy. Our simulations show that: (a) a lockdown policy is always better than the laissez-faire policy because it limits the costs generated by the pandemic in an uncontrolled situation; (b) a group-specific targeted lockout policy is more effective than a uniform policy to the extent that the groups differ. The latter is a less expensive targeted policy (as it optimally minimizes direct, indirect, and vaccination costs), and it is equally effective in controlling the pandemic. One finding of particular interest is that the optimal lockdown rate should be higher for the young and elderly than for adults. This is motivated by the fact that younger individuals are more likely to spread the virus in question asymptomatically.