Exporting unemployment? Assessing the impact of German import competition on regional manufacturing employment in France
评估德国进口竞争是否导致法国各地区制造业就业下降，发现没有证据表明德国进口竞争影响了法国区域制造业就业，说明中国贸易的负面效应不一定普遍存在。
This paper assesses the extent to which German import competition has contributed to the observed differential decline in manufacturing employment across French regions. The study employs an exposure research design that exploits differences in regional manufacturing specialisation across French départements combined with an instrumental variable strategy. The analysis does not establish a connection between German import competition and differential changes in regional French manufacturing employment. This result suggests that German import competition has neither driven nor halted the overall decline of French manufacturing employment. It also indicates that the sizeable and long-lasting negative regional employment effects of trade between China and developed countries do not necessarily generalise.