Heterogeneous Paths of Industrialization
用一个结构变迁基准模型，揭示各国工业化路径差异的根源，特别是过早去工业化现象，发现农业生产率增长差异是工业就业峰值变化的主因。
Abstract Industrialization experiences differ substantially across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization. Our analysis leads to three key findings. First, benchmark models of structural change robustly generate hump-shaped patterns for the evolution of the industrial sector. Second, heterogeneous patterns of catch-up in sectoral productivities across countries can generate variation in industrialization experiences similar to those found in the data, including premature deindustrialization. Third, differences in the rate of agricultural productivity growth across economies can account for the majority of the variation in peak industrial employment shares.