How certain are we about the role of uncertainty in the economy?
发现，关于不确定性冲击是经济衰退的原因还是结果、以及其影响是有害还是刺激的争议，源于结构向量自回归模型中识别策略的选择。研究表明，宏观经济和金融不确定性对经济周期波动是外生的，并导致经济放缓。
Abstract While causes and consequences of uncertainty in the US economy have attracted viable interest, the literature still lacks a consensus on several aspects. To name two matters of debate, it remains unclear whether uncertainty shocks are a source or the result of recessions and whether uncertainty shocks have adverse (or even stimulating) effects on the economy. We find that ambiguous results in these regards can be traced back to the selection of an appropriate identification strategy in structural vector autoregressive models. We find that both macroeconomic and financial uncertainty are exogenous to business cycle fluctuations and cause economic slowdowns.