How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
通过对荷兰家庭进行随机信息干预，研究发现降低通胀预期会显著增加耐用品支出，但对非耐用品支出影响不显著，这主要源于家庭对实际收入和总支出更乐观。
We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely estimated, but there is a sharp positive effect on durable spending. This is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more optimistic about their real income and aggregate spending when they decrease their inflation expectations. We find little role for cognitive or financial constraints in explaining spending responses.