Political discretion and risk: the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the distribution of global operations, and uranium company valuation
研究了政治约束如何影响投资者对政策风险的感知，利用2011年福岛核灾难作为自然实验，分析澳大利亚和加拿大铀公司股票的反应，发现政治约束与政策风险感知呈U型关系。
Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between political constraint and investor perception of policy risk using an analysis of the reaction of Australian and Canadian uranium company stocks to the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. Our dataset traces 933 projects of 322 uranium firms located across 36 countries and posits a U-shaped relationship between political constraint and investor perceptions of policy risk. Using an event study methodology as applied to the natural quasi-experiment arising from the event, we link heterogeneous changes in stock returns to the policy risk in the uranium project locations of the firms. The results corroborate the expected relationship and hold even after we control for home-country bias.