Employment reconciliation and nowcasting
构建了一个美国潜在就业估计值,调和了工资单和家庭调查的信息,并纳入了工资单数据的初步修订过程,发现调和后的序列与初始发布数据相似,但更接近最终修订数据。
Summary We construct a latent employment estimate for the United States, which both reconciles the information from separate payroll and household surveys and incorporates the preliminary data revision process of the payroll data. We find that our reconciled latent employment series looks somewhat different than the initial release of payroll employment and is closer to the fully revised data that is benchmarked to a near census of employment. A real‐time exercise, however, suggests that the reconciled employment estimate is remarkably similar to the initial release of payroll employment with near zero weight on the household survey information.